Results

Projected and final standings

Ordered by projected finish. Hollow dot = finished outside the 80% range.

80% rangeExpected winsActual wins

AL East

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Yankees	90.1	78–103	93–68	+2.9	39%
Red Sox	86.7	74–99	87–75	+0.3	24%
Blue Jays	86.6	74–99	79–83	−7.6	24%
Raysdiv	79.1	66–92	98–64	+18.9	7%
Orioles	77.3	65–90	79–82	+1.7	5%

Table 1. AL East. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Guardiansdiv	84.7	72–97	85–77	+0.3	38%
Royals	83.2	70–96	69–93	−14.2	30%
Tigers	80.3	68–93	76–86	−4.3	20%
Twins	73.7	61–86	77–85	+3.3	7%
White Sox	71.2	59–84	84–78	+12.8	4%

Table 2. AL Central. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Mariners	87.4	75–100	76–86	−11.4	41%
Rangers	83.2	71–96	80–82	−3.2	24%
Astrosdiv	82.6	70–95	81–81	−1.6	21%
Athletics	78.8	66–91	64–98	−14.8	12%
Angels	69.5	57–82	62–100	−7.5	2%

Table 3. AL West. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Phillies	90.4	78–103	88–74	−2.4	53%
Mets	82.3	70–95	74–88	−8.3	18%
Bravesdiv	82.1	69–95	94–68	+11.9	18%
Marlins	78.3	66–91	80–82	+1.7	9%
Nationals	68.7	56–81	77–85	+8.3	2%

Table 4. NL East. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Brewersdiv	91.6	79–104	103–59	+11.4	49%
Cubs	87.3	75–100	89–73	+1.7	27%
Reds	82.4	70–95	75–87	−7.4	14%
Pirates	77.5	65–90	82–80	+4.5	6%
Cardinals	75.5	63–88	77–85	+1.5	4%

Table 5. NL Central. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

Team	Proj.	80% range	Actual	Miss	P(div)
Dodgersdiv	91.2	79–104	100–62	+8.8	48%
Padres	86.8	74–99	91–71	+4.2	27%
D-backs	82.1	70–95	86–76	+3.9	14%
Giants	81.3	69–94	65–97	−16.3	12%
Rockies	57.9	46–70	58–104	+0.1	<1%

Table 6. NL West. Bars span 45–115 wins; faint line = 81.

26 of 30 teams finished inside their 80% range (about 24 expected).