Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL West

Texas Rangers

Projected 12th of 30 · finished 15th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
83.2
80% interval 71–96
Actual record
80–82
run differential −46
Preseason playoff odds
47%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
3.3%
division 24% · pennant 7%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 83.2actual 80
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −4.1 after game 148.

See all Rangers games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1509 — a 51.2% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 51.8%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202160–102625815.378
202268–94707743.477
202390–72881716.599
202478–84683738.464
202581–81684605.555
2026 (graded)80–82673719—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.