Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected 3rd of 30 · finished 8th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
90.4
80% interval 78–103
Actual record
88–74
run differential +15
Preseason playoff odds
73%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
8.3%
division 53% · pennant 15%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110120Winsmean 90.4actual 88
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −6.9 after game 28.

See all Phillies games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1538 — a 55.5% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 55.1%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202182–80734745.493
202287–75747685.540
202390–72796715.551
202495–67784671.573
202596–66778648.585
2026 (graded)88–74713698—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.