Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Projected 24th of 30 · finished 17th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
77.3
80% interval 65–90
Actual record
79–82
run differential −21
Preseason playoff odds
23%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
1.1%
division 5% · pennant 3%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 77.3actual 79
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −3.1 after game 50.

See all Orioles games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1488 — a 48.2% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 47.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202152–110659956.327
202283–79674688.490
2023101–61807678.582
202491–71786699.555
202575–87677788.429
2026 (graded)79–82718739—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.