Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL East

Washington Nationals

Projected 29th of 30 · finished 19th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
68.7
80% interval 56–81
Actual record
77–85
run differential +6
Preseason playoff odds
5%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.1%
division 2% · pennant <1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%405060708090100Winsmean 68.7actual 77
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +9.5 after game 108.

See all Nationals games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1448 — a 42.6% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 43.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202165–97724820.441
202255–107603855.342
202371–91700845.411
202471–91660764.432
202566–96687899.373
2026 (graded)77–85821815—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.