Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Projected 6th of 30 · finished 7th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
87.3
80% interval 75–100
Actual record
89–73
run differential +147
Preseason playoff odds
60%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
5.5%
division 27% · pennant 10%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110120Winsmean 87.3actual 89
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +6.1 after game 39.

See all Cubs games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1527 — a 53.9% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 54.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202171–91705839.418
202274–88657731.451
202383–79819723.559
202483–79736669.544
202592–70793649.593
2026 (graded)89–73850703—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.