Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected 20th of 30 · finished 3rd · outside its 80% range

Projected wins
79.1
80% interval 66–92
Actual record
98–64
run differential +86
Preseason playoff odds
29%
Won the pennant
Preseason title odds
1.6%
division 7% · pennant 4%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 79.1actual 98
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-20-100+10+2004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +19.4 after game 156.

See all Rays games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1495 — a 49.3% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.2%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
2021100–62857651.627
202286–76666614.537
202399–63860665.620
202480–82604663.458
202577–85714683.521
2026 (graded)98–64736650—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.