Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected 9th of 30 · finished 18th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
86.6
80% interval 74–99
Actual record
79–83
run differential −46
Preseason playoff odds
61%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
5.8%
division 24% · pennant 11%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110Winsmean 86.6actual 79
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −9.4 after game 108.

See all Blue Jays games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1526 — a 53.8% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 52.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202191–71846663.614
202292–70775679.562
202389–73746671.549
202474–88671743.453
202594–68798721.548
2026 (graded)79–83648694—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.