Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected 16th of 30 · finished 10th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
82.1
80% interval 70–95
Actual record
86–76
run differential +9
Preseason playoff odds
38%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
2.3%
division 14% · pennant 5%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 82.1actual 86
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +4.7 after game 160.

See all D-backs games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1504 — a 50.5% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.4%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202152–110679893.371
202274–88702740.475
202384–78746761.491
202489–73886788.557
202580–82791785.504
2026 (graded)86–76739730—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.