Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL West

San Diego Padres

Projected 7th of 30 · finished 6th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
86.8
80% interval 74–99
Actual record
91–71
run differential +41
Preseason playoff odds
58%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
4.8%
division 27% · pennant 9%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110Winsmean 86.8actual 91
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −4.8 after game 103.

See all Padres games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1523 — a 53.3% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 53.4%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202179–83729708.514
202289–73705660.530
202382–80752648.569
202493–69760669.559
202590–72702621.556
2026 (graded)91–71722681—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.