Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

Projected 28th of 30 · finished 29th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
69.5
80% interval 57–82
Actual record
62–100
run differential −97
Preseason playoff odds
7%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.2%
division 2% · pennant 1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%405060708090100Winsmean 69.5actual 62
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −7.9 after game 158.

See all Angels games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1453 — a 43.3% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 44.4%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202177–85723804.450
202273–89623668.468
202373–89739829.445
202463–99635797.395
202572–90673837.398
2026 (graded)62–100655752—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.