Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds

Projected 14th of 30 · finished 24th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
82.4
80% interval 70–95
Actual record
75–87
run differential −160
Preseason playoff odds
40%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
2.5%
division 14% · pennant 5%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 82.4actual 75
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −7.6 after game 156.

See all Reds games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1508 — a 51.1% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202183–79786760.516
202262–100648815.394
202382–80783821.477
202477–85699694.503
202583–79716681.523
2026 (graded)75–87666826—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.