Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL East

New York Yankees

Projected 4th of 30 · finished 5th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
90.1
80% interval 78–103
Actual record
93–68
run differential +138
Preseason playoff odds
74%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
9.2%
division 39% · pennant 17%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110120Winsmean 90.1actual 93
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +5.5 after game 72.

See all Yankees games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1540 — a 55.7% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 55.6%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202192–70711669.528
202299–63807567.657
202382–80673698.483
202494–68815668.593
202594–68849685.601
2026 (graded)93–68739601—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.