Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL East

Boston Red Sox

Projected 8th of 30 · finished 9th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
86.7
80% interval 74–99
Actual record
87–75
run differential +78
Preseason playoff odds
61%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
5.8%
division 24% · pennant 12%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110Winsmean 86.7actual 87
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −9.5 after game 78.

See all Red Sox games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1526 — a 53.8% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 53.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202192–70829749.549
202278–84735787.468
202378–84772776.497
202481–81751747.502
202589–73786676.570
2026 (graded)87–75689611—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.