Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL West

San Francisco Giants

Projected 18th of 30 · finished 27th · outside its 80% range

Projected wins
81.3
80% interval 69–94
Actual record
65–97
run differential −91
Preseason playoff odds
34%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
1.9%
division 12% · pennant 4%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 81.3actual 65
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-100+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −16.4 after game 162.

See all Giants games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1501 — a 50.1% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.4%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
2021107–55804594.637
202281–81716697.512
202379–83674719.470
202480–82693699.496
202581–81705684.514
2026 (graded)65–97669760—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.