Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

Projected 19th of 30 · finished 22nd · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
80.3
80% interval 68–93
Actual record
76–86
run differential +71
Preseason playoff odds
36%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
2.0%
division 20% · pennant 5%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 80.3actual 76
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −7.3 after game 60.

See all Tigers games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1495 — a 49.3% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 52.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202177–85697756.462
202266–96557713.390
202378–84661740.448
202486–76682642.528
202587–75758691.543
2026 (graded)76–86723652—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.