Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Projected 26th of 30 · finished 21st · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
73.7
80% interval 61–86
Actual record
77–85
run differential −58
Preseason playoff odds
15%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.5%
division 7% · pennant 1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100Winsmean 73.7actual 77
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +5.5 after game 111.

See all Twins games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1468 — a 45.5% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 46.8%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202173–89729834.436
202278–84696684.508
202387–75778659.577
202482–80742735.504
202570–92678773.439
2026 (graded)77–85739797—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.